A monster swell followed by a long, slow paddle…

Lately I’ve been hearing people reflect and reminsice on the similarities between today’s real estate market the big ol’ crash of 2008. Back then… sales volume plummeted. Prices dropped. Listings piled up. Renovations were needed just to compete—and even then, homes sold below asking and WAY below assessed values from the year before. 

When you look at the last two to three years of the Canadian real estate market, from the frenzied highs of the pandemic to the abrupt slowdown and current state of “wait and see,” the best way I can describe the market is to give it to you like a surfing analogy, “a monster swell followed by a long, slow paddle.”

Here’s how it breaks down:

• The Monster Swell (2020 – early 2022): This was the peak of the pandemic housing boom. The waves were absolutely massive, coming one after another. Buyers were like surfers frantically trying to catch every single wave, no matter how big or dangerous, for fear of missing out. The boards were a metaphor for low interest rates and high demand, and everyone, from seasoned investors to first-time home buyers, was paddling hard. The market was a frothy, chaotic place with bidding wars and waived inspections—it was a pure adrenaline rush. You had to be quick, decisive, and willing to take on big risks just to get a ride.
• The Wipeout (Early 2022): Then, the massive interest rate hikes hit. This was the moment the giant wave crashed. Surfers (buyers and sellers) were suddenly thrown off their boards. The water became turbulent and unpredictable. People who had just caught a wave (bought at the peak) were suddenly under water, grappling with higher mortgage payments and the fear of declining home values. It was a shock to the system, a sudden, jarring correction that brought the frenzied energy to a complete halt.
• The Long, Slow Paddle (2023 – Present): This is the current phase. The big waves are gone, and the water is now much calmer, but it’s not a smooth, easy ride. It’s a long, patient paddle back to shore or to find the next set of waves. Buyers are waiting on their surfboards (watching interest rates and prices) to see if a better, more stable wave is coming. They’re more cautious and strategic. Sellers, who are already in the water, are paddling against the current, hoping to catch a smaller, more manageable wave to get to where they need to go. There are still small ripples and pockets of activity, but it’s nothing like the monster swell.

The key here amongst all this tide change is patience, observation, and a willingness to wait for the right opportunity, rather than jumping on the first thing that comes along. If you are wondering what the “right opportunity” looks like for you, let’s have a chat and see how your goals line up with what’s out there in the market.

Now is an amazing time to be a buyer and to be able to get a great deal and if you’re looking to sell your property, the best way to win in this market is to make sure you play the “pricing” game well and you’ll see the buyers come around in no time!